Notably, we are showing the generic ballot preferences among all Americans instead of projecting a likely voter population. At the same time, Republican support remains mostly the same.īecause our FiveThirtyEight/Ipsos poll is a panel study, interviewing the same individuals each month, this change from May to now represents a real change of opinion and is not an artifact of who is in the survey sample. Now, segments of Biden's 2020 base, who previously were not invested in the midterms, are more firmly supporting Democrats in the fall, driving this change in the generic ballot. Wade, much of the enthusiasm-advantage Republicans enjoyed up to this point has been reduced.Įarlier in the spring, Democrats struggled to engage Biden's 2020 base. However, it does suggest that, following the overturn of Roe vs. This development in the generic Congressional ballot from our FiveThirtyEight/Ipsos election program does not mean Democrats are likely to hold on to control of the House of Representatives, considering Republican advantages in redistricting. The 2022 midterms have narrowed to a rough parity between Democrats and Republicans, following a significant Republican advantage in May.

Breaking down the generic congressional ballot and what it means for the 2022 election, May 24, 2022.Democratic voters not aligned on main issues headed into 2022, June 7, 2022.Concerns about gun violence cut across party lines (mostly), June 16, 2022.People vastly underestimate how popular abortion is under certain circumstances, June 30, 2022.Republicans lose slight edge on the generic ballot, July 13, 2022.The next wave of this FiveThirtyEight/Ipsos poll will show whether this shift remains or whether Republicans have regained their edge since last month. Though, Republican advantages with redistricting make it unlikely that Democrats will hold onto the House. As of now, Republicans have lost their slight edge over Democrats on the generic ballot. Wade and recent mass shootings at Uvalde and Highland Park, this analysis suggests that abortion and crime/gun violence are issues motivating parts of Biden's 2020 base who were previously uncommitted to participating in the midterms. After those two issues, political extremism registers the third largest uptick in worry, but that issue has increased by a much smaller magnitude, only moving by 5 points. However, these “switchers” are less likely than the remaining uncommitted block of Biden supporters (58%) to say inflation is a problem.Īdditionally, since May 2022, abortion and crime/gun violence has increased the most as a worry among Democratic “switchers.” From the first wave to the third, Democratic concern about abortion increased by 27 points, and worry about crime/gun violence increased by 19 points. Democratic “switchers” are more likely to consider inflation a worry (48%) compared to people who have been Democratic voters all along (39%). 26% “uncommitted”).Ĭompare concerns about abortion to inflation, the main issue for most Americans, and it strongly looks like the repeal of Roe has pushed these voters into the electorate. Compared to Biden’s remaining uncommitted base, these Democratic “switchers” are also more likely to cite abortion as their main issue (35% among “switchers” vs. Still, of those who became certain Democratic voters in July, nearly three in five (58%) identify as female, and over two in five (44%) are people of color. Though, this development in the generic Congressional ballot does not mean Democrats are likely to hold on to control of the House of Representatives, considering Republican advantages in redistricting. Analysis of the FiveThirtyEight/Ipsos tracking poll suggests that following the Dobbs decision, a segment of Biden’s 2020 base who were previously uninvested in the midterms now say they are likely to vote for a Democratic candidate. Since May 2022, Republicans have lost a slight edge on the generic ballot.

2022 midterm predictions